Trump’s Return: Is American Climate Policy Dead?

With Donald Trump poised for a return to the White House, the future of U.S. climate policy hangs in the balance. While his presidency wouldn’t erase all progress, the outlook for bold climate action is undeniably bleak.

Throughout his campaign, Trump has made his stance on climate policy clear—deriding the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) as “the green new scam” and doubling down on fossil fuel expansion. His second term would likely be even more aggressive in rolling back environmental regulations, despite the increasing frequency of climate disasters, from wildfires in the West to record hurricanes in Florida—a state that still voted decisively for Trump.

What Trump’s Climate Agenda Looks Like

If Trump follows through on his campaign promises, here’s what we can expect:

🇺🇸 Drill, Baby, Drill – Trump has vowed to ramp up domestic oil and gas production, end Biden’s LNG export moratorium, and open more federal lands for drilling. His energy platform prioritizes short-term economic gains over long-term sustainability. The actual impacts on oil and gas production are unclear. More production means more supply. That means lower oil and gas prices, which fossil fuel companies are not keen on.

🚛 Deregulation – Trump aims to weaken environmental oversight by fast-tracking fossil fuel projects, rolling back emissions limits, and further restricting the EPA’s authority. Under his leadership, we can expect fewer restrictions on industrial pollution and a resurgence of coal and gas infrastructure.

✂️ Withdrawal from Global Climate Commitments – Trump has repeatedly expressed disdain for international climate cooperation, signaling that the U.S. would likely withdraw (again) from the Paris Agreement and reduce its influence in global climate negotiations.

Will the Inflation Reduction Act Survive?

Despite Trump’s promises to dismantle Biden’s flagship climate legislation, the IRA is unlikely to disappear entirely. Here’s why:

📈 Massive Clean Energy Investments Are Already in Motion – Since its passage, the IRA has spurred $154 billion in U.S.-based clean energy manufacturing investments. With China dominating the global clean energy market, Trump may be reluctant to scrap incentives that strengthen American competitiveness.

🟥 Red States Are Benefiting the Most – Many of the new clean energy projects funded by the IRA are in Republican-led states. Senators and representatives may resist efforts to gut the law entirely, fearing job losses and economic setbacks in their constituencies.

⚡ Elon Musk’s Influence – With Tesla’s CEO positioned as a potential Trump advisor, totally gutting EV policy may be hard. Trump’s transactional approach to policy suggests that major industry players could push to keep parts of the IRA intact. However, Tesla's advanced market position would most likely benefit from rollbacks in EV mandates, as other competitors struggle to catch up.

Climate Policy Under Trump: Holding the Line Instead of Moving Forward

Even if the IRA survives in some form, a second Trump presidency would likely mean four years of stagnation in climate policy. Instead of progress, environmental groups and clean energy advocates would be forced into a defensive posture, fighting to preserve existing gains rather than building on them.

This is bad news not just for the U.S. but for global climate efforts. With the world already on track to exceed 1.5°C of warming, the next decade is critical. While states, businesses, and international players may continue driving climate action, the absence of federal leadership will slow momentum and weaken global commitments.

Headwinds & Market Forces

Trump’s return wouldn’t kill U.S. climate policy outright, but it would leave it significantly wounded. With solar being the cheap source of electricity, it is ready to compete against market forces that crippled solar in its infancy. The future of American wind is more uncertain.

The focus will shift from ambitious climate action to damage control—protecting what’s already been achieved rather than forging ahead. And in a world that desperately needs acceleration, not hesitation, that’s a reality we can’t afford.